The United States is facing a growing shortage of physicians despite increasing global interest in medical careers. According to healthcare workforce projections, the challenge is not a lack of ambition among aspiring doctors but rather structural pressures that have developed over decades. An ageing population, a wave of physician retirements and limitations in medical education capacity are combining to place unprecedented strain on the country's healthcare system.
Healthcare experts warn that demand for medical services is rising faster than the United States can educate, train and retain new physicians. This imbalance is expected to intensify over the next decade as demographic changes reshape healthcare needs across the country.
According to the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), the population aged 65 years and older in the United States is projected to increase by 34% by 2036, while the number of people aged over 75 years could rise by 54.7%. Older adults generally require significantly more healthcare services than younger populations, with estimates suggesting they may need up to five times more medical consultations and treatments. As a result, hospitals, clinics and primary care services are expected to experience sustained growth in demand.
At the same time, the medical workforce itself is ageing. Recent workforce analyses indicate that approximately 40% of practising physicians are approaching retirement age, and more than two in five doctors are expected to be aged 65 or older within the next decade. This creates a dual challenge: increasing patient demand alongside a shrinking supply of experienced healthcare professionals.
Medical education has also struggled to expand at the pace required to meet future workforce needs. Although the United States has approximately 190 medical schools, countries such as Brazil now have more than 420 medical schools, despite serving a smaller population. While the quality and structure of medical education differ considerably between countries, the comparison highlights the limited expansion of physician training capacity in the United States over recent decades.
Forecasts suggest that the shortage will continue to grow. The Association of American Medical Colleges estimates that the United States could face a deficit of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. Meanwhile, the Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) projects that shortages could reach 187,130 healthcare professionals by 2037, depending on future workforce participation, healthcare demand and population growth.
As these pressures increase, internationally trained physicians are becoming an increasingly important component of the American healthcare workforce. Current estimates indicate that approximately one-quarter of practising doctors in the United States completed their medical education abroad, reflecting the country's growing reliance on overseas talent to maintain healthcare capacity.
Regulatory reforms are also reshaping access for international physicians. In recent years, at least 18 US states have introduced alternative pathways allowing some internationally trained doctors to practise without repeating an entire American residency programme, provided they meet specific licensing requirements. States including Florida, Texas, Illinois and Massachusetts have implemented measures intended to ease physician shortages while maintaining professional standards.
According to Rafael Duarte, Chief Executive Officer and founder of RD Medicine, these developments illustrate how healthcare systems are adapting to workforce realities rather than temporary market fluctuations.
"The bottleneck lies in the training and replacement of physicians, which has not kept pace with growing demand. As a result, the United States increasingly depends on talented professionals trained abroad while adjusting its regulatory framework to integrate them into the healthcare system."
Duarte believes the changes represent more than a short-term response to workforce shortages.
"What we are witnessing is a gradual transformation of the global medical labour market. The United States is creating more opportunities for internationally trained physicians, and this trend is likely to continue as healthcare systems seek sustainable ways to balance supply and demand."
Health workforce specialists have long argued that physician shortages require multiple solutions, including expanding medical education, improving retention, increasing postgraduate training opportunities and making better use of qualified international graduates. While no single measure is expected to resolve the challenge entirely, policymakers increasingly recognise that international recruitment will remain an important component of healthcare planning in the United States.
As populations continue to age and demand for healthcare rises worldwide, the physician shortage in the United States highlights broader global challenges in workforce planning. The evolving role of internationally trained doctors may not only help address immediate staffing needs but also reshape the future of healthcare delivery in one of the world's largest medical systems.